Service Plays Sunday 12/7/08

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Pointwise Phone Plays

<!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->4* New England
3* Green Bay
3* New Orleans
3* NY Jets
3* Arizona
3* NY Giants
2* Carolina(Mon)
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dr. Bob

TENNESSEE (-13.5) 26 Cleveland 12
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Dec-07 - Stats Matchup
I'll have analysis of this game posted later.


NY GIANTS (-7.0) 24 Philadelphia 17
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Dec-07 - Stats Matchup
I'll have analysis of this game posted later. In a pool, I'd lean with NYG at -7 or less and with Philly at +7 1/2 or more.


CHICAGO (-6.5) 23 Jacksonville 17
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Dec-07 - Stats Matchup
The Jaguars have been overrated all season long and they are now just 4-8 straight up and 3-9 ATS after getting whipped on Monday night in Houston. The Jags are below average offensively (5.2 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team) and their sub-par defense is likely to get worse without top CB Rashean Mathis, who was put on injured reserve this week. My math model favors Chicago by 8 ½ points, but the technical analysis favors the Jaguars a bit (there are situations favoring both sides, but the angles favor the Jags are stronger).


Minnesota (-9.5) 0 DETROIT 0
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Dec-07 - Stats Matchup
No official line on this game yet, but the line was Minnesota by 9 1/2 before they removed it from the board. I'll be leaning with Detroit plus 7 or more and will have analysis of this game posted later.


GREEN BAY (-6.0) 27 Houston 24
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Dec-07 - Stats Matchup
Houston can move the ball as well as any team in the nation and the Texans are capable of an upset here if Sage Rosenfels can keep his interception total at 1 or fewer. The problem is that Rosenfels has thrown 22 interceptions on 414 pass attempts the last two seasons (10 in 6 games this season). My math model predicts 1.9 interceptions for Rosenfels and favors Green Bay by 5 points, so the line value favors Houston a bit and the Packers apply to a negative 40-96-1 ATS situation.


NEW ORLEANS (-3.5) 27 Atlanta 24
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Dec-07 - Stats Matchup
I'll have analysis of this game posted later.


INDIANAPOLIS (-13.5) 26 Cincinnati 13
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Dec-07 - Stats Matchup
The Bengals have been horrible on offense all season long, but the Bengals were good defensively until injuries hit them in mid-season. The loss of star rookie LB Keith Rivers in week 7 was the first blow and the Bengals have had to put two other defensive backfield starters in injured reserve since then. The once strong pass defense is horrible now (they’ve allowed 8.0 yards per pass play or more in 4 of their last 6 games) and Peyton Manning should take advantage. The Bengals still defend the run well, so they’ll hold up well late in the game when the Colts run the ball more with a lead. My math model favors Indy by 14 points, but the technical analysis favors Cincy a bit.


Buffalo (pick) 21 Miami 20 (at Toronto)
01:05 PM Pacific Time Sunday, Dec-07 - Stats Matchup
I'll have analysis of this game posted later.



NY Jets (-4.0) vs. SAN FRANCISCO
01:05 PM Pacific Time Sunday, Dec-07 - Stats Matchup
This game is part of Dr Bob's Best Bets package, which includes all of Dr. Bob's Best Bets, Strong Opinions and other withheld games. For the analysis of this game and all the Bets and Strong Opinions for this week click here




Kansas City vs. DENVER (-9.0)
01:05 PM Pacific Time Sunday, Dec-07 - Stats Matchup
This game is part of Dr Bob's Best Bets package, which includes all of Dr. Bob's Best Bets, Strong Opinions and other withheld games. For the analysis of this game and all the Bets and Strong Opinions for this week click here



New England (-4.5) 22 SEATTLE 21
01:05 PM Pacific Time Sunday, Dec-07 - Stats Matchup
I'll have analysis of this game posted later.


ARIZONA (-14.0) 27 St. Louis 17
01:15 PM Pacific Time Sunday, Dec-07 - Stats Matchup
I'll have analysis of this game posted later. My math model favors Arizona by 17 1/2 points, but the situation is strongly in favor of the Rams.


PITTSBURGH (-3.0) 21 Dallas 16
01:15 PM Pacific Time Sunday, Dec-07 - Stats Matchup
I'll have analysis of this game posted later.


BALTIMORE (-5.0) 17 Washington 14
05:15 PM Pacific Time Sunday, Dec-07 - Stats Matchup
I'll have analysis of this game posted later.


CAROLINA (-3.0) 22 Tampa Bay 17
05:35 PM Pacific Time Monday, Dec-08 - Stats Matchup
I'll have analysis of this game posted later. My math favors Carolina by 3 with a total of 38, but the situation favors Carolina.
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Week 14 Sports MarketWatch – Games to Watch (18-18 = 50.0%)

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Chicago Bears

After three weeks in a row -- on the road (!!) -- many people are picking the Chicago Bears to give a strong performance at home against the 4-8 Jacksonville Jaguars. The Bears are 6-6 but still have playoff aspirations. The Bears were beaten up on the road last week by Minny (34-14) and three weeks ago by Tennessee (21-14). In between these losses, the Bears easily handled a weak St. Louis team 27-3.

Which Bear team will show up this Sunday? The Public is betting on a strong Bear team, with SportsInsights reporting that more than 80% of bets are landing on Chicago. Although Jax sits in last place with their 4-8 record, they are not as weak as St. Louis. Early "Sharp" money has been on the Jaguars -- with the opening line moving from Chicago -7 down to Chicago -6.5 (even with the Public getting almost all of their bets down on Chicago). Our readers know that we like to go with the "Smart money" and "bet against the Public."

Jacksonville Jaguars +6.5

Houston Texans vs. Green Bay Packers

Early in the season, the Green Bay Packers and Brett Favre dominated the NFL news headlines. All looked well for Green Bay and Aaron Rodgers -- and the Jets and Favre early in the season. Both teams looked like they were playoff-bound. The Jets still look strong -- but the Packers have been slumping badly lately.

Even so, early-season excitement is hard to extinguish -- and the Public still loves Green Bay. The Public loves GB in this match-up over a mediocre Houston Texan team. Three out of every four bets are landing on the home favorite Packers. Similar to the Jax selection above, SportsInsights' sports marketplace tools show that "smart money" has been taking the Houston Texans. Even though a large majority of bets is coming down on GB, the line has actually decreased from the GB -6.5 opener to the current -6. Some 5.5's are popping up -- so we would advise grabbing Houston +6 while you can.

Houston Texans +6

New York Jets vs. San Francisco 49ers

Before last week's surprising loss to Denver, some people had the Jets and Giants as two of the best teams in the NFL. Many people are shrugging off last week's loss -- and still think the Jets are one of the league's elite teams. Indeed, almost 90% of all bets are taking the visiting Jets as slight favorites over the 49ers. Three-and-a-half points doesn't seem like much, right? Especially for one of the league's best teams against a 4-8 team that is just 2-4 at home! That's what most bettors think.

This game falls into the "Pepto Bismol" category. We say "Bet against the public" and take the "ugliest-looking" game on the board. Take your shot of Pepto and know that "contrarian value" is on your side in the long-run. The overwhelming number of bets on the Jets has pushed the line up to SF +4. We like that extra value on the "key-four" number.

San Francisco 49ers +4

Tampa Bay Bucs vs. Carolina Panthers

Our offshore contacts circled this game because "sharp money" on Carolina is causing the line to increase slightly. The line opened at Carolina -3 -104 at Pinnacle. Even though the majority of bets is taking TB Bucs, the line has actually moved in the other direction. It's actually now MORE expensive (-3 -115) to bet on Carolina even with the majority of the Public betting on TB.

We'll join the "smart money" as usual -- and grab the -3 now -- in case the "big money" drives the line up to -3.5. This should be a great game -- and we'll take Carolina at home in what should be -- a great game.

Carolina -3

So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights analysis for this week’s Games to Watch:

Games to Watch (18-18 = 50.0%)

Jacksonville Jaguars +6.5
Houston Texans +6
San Francisco 49ers +4
Carolina -3
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[brady1983]

Larry's Week 14 Las Vegas Insider (10-2 TY)

Larry and his "unmatched" contacts barely "broke a sweat" on Thanksgiving night, as the Eagles (-3) crushed the Cardinals, 48-20. The win upped Larry's season-long record with his exclusive NFL Insiders to 10-2 (83.3%)! His 'ASSAULT' on the NFL pointspread continues on Sunday. "It pays to be on the inside with Larry." Want in?


Green Bay Packers

 

[newty81]

Tom Stryker's 11-0 ATS NFL Blowout of the Week<o></o>
<o> </o>
[FONT=&quot]#161 NEW ENGLAND (-) over Seattle at 4:05 PM EST<o></o>[/FONT]

 

[ymmit2nd]

Ron Raymond’s 5* NFL UPSET SPECIAL OF THE WEEK!
Pick # 1 Miami Dolphins (1.0)



Ron Raymond’s 5* NFL O/U GAME OF THE WEEK!
Pick # 1 Philadelphia Eagles / New York Giants Under 42.5 -110




Ron Raymond’s NFL Blowout Game of the Week!
Pick # 1 Green Bay Packers (-6.0)

 

[newty81]

Pro Sports Plays<o></o>
<o> </o>
10* Top Play is Buffalo<o></o>
<o> </o>
5* Play is Giants<o></o>
[FONT=&quot]5* Play is Baltimore Ravens<o></o>[/FONT]

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Leroy's Money Talks Invitational

<!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->Posting for Sunday NFL:

The Shrink

110 Army +10.5
133 Missouri +17
111 Pitt +3
147 Eagles +7
138 Bears -6.5
164 Panthers -3

Best Bet:
118 UCLA +33


Generous Jay

111 Pitt +3
131 Alabama +10
143 Vikings -10
149 Falcons OV51.5
155 Chiefs +9
155 Chiefs OV49

Best Bet:
164 Panthers -3
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Kevin Kavitch Overall a monitored 40-30-1 in the NFL headed into Sunday. 5-1 on 5* Top Plays. Only 5* loss on Bengals vs Jets when Palmer was a scratch. He said not to play it on the Friday before the game but still took the loss.

Huge game for Washington and I have no doubt they'll be the stronger motivated team. Washington has shown alot of character down the stretch in recent seasons and this is another gut check. They have enough D to be competitive and Portis is expected to play. On the other side, Baltimore is in a more comfortable position and have the biggest game of the season on deck vs the Steelers. Coouldn't blame them if they have less than 100% focus on the 'Skins. Projected weather looks less than ideal and that helps even things out for the dog, especially getting more than 4. Take Washington +5 for a 5* Top Play.


Philadelphia is definitely a motivated team and a live dog. McNabb and Westbrook are coming on and the team has it's confidence back. This is a group that knows what big games are all about and have a playmaking D. Quite a line move from -9 to -6.5 in spite of the fact almost 70% of all bets are on the Giants. Big/smart money is definitely on Philly and I agree. The weather could also make it tougher for the Giants to cover the generous points. Take Philadelphia +6.5 for a 3* play
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Allen Eastman

$600.00 -107 Oakland (+9.5) over San Diego (8 p.m., Thursday, Dec. 4)

$3000.00 +101 Pittsburgh (-3) over Dallas (4 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 7)

$3000.00 -110 ‘Under’ 42.0 Cincinnati at Indianapolis (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 7)

$300.00-110 48.5 Kansas City at Denver (4 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 7)

$400.00 3-TEAM SWEETHEART TEASER:Oakland (+19.5) AND ‘Under’ 52.0 Cincinnati at Indianapolis AND ‘Over’ 38.5 Kansas City at Denver

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Spylock

1 unit greenbay
1 unit pittsburgh
1 unit baltimore

 

[brady1983]

Larry's Week 14 Las Vegas Insider (10-2 TY)

Larry and his "unmatched" contacts barely "broke a sweat" on Thanksgiving night, as the Eagles (-3) crushed the Cardinals, 48-20. The win upped Larry's season-long record with his exclusive NFL Insiders to 10-2 (83.3%)! His 'ASSAULT' on the NFL pointspread continues on Sunday. "It pays to be on the inside with Larry." Want in?


Green Bay Packers

<table class="data" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr><td class="datacell">
</td> <td class="datacell">

Larry Ness' NFL 25-Club (2-0 in NFL '08!)

Larry's 25-Club plays represent his 25 years in the business and get the highest star-rating he assigns any release here at CE (10*). He's released just two in NFL '08, winning with the Redkins (Week 3) and the Patriots (Week 10). It's very unlikely Larry will have another 25-Club this regular season, so "don't get caught on the sidelines!"

New Orleans
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Hilton Contest Week#14

<!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->Most picked this week are:

1 Philadelphia +7 108

2 New England -5 103

3 Baltimore -5 81

3 Carolina -3 81

5 NY Jets -4 79
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

** NFL NEWSLETTERS **
HOT
ERIN RYNNING (SPORTS MEMO) (3-1-1)... KC
LOGICAL APPROACH SEL OF WEEK (8-3)... ARIZONA
MARTY OTTO (SPORTS MEMO) (3-0)...
NELLY'S SPORTSLINE 5* (7-3).. NEW ENGLAND
NORTHCOAST POWER SWEEP 4* (7-3-2).... GREEN BAY
ROB VENO (SPORTS MEMO) (2-1-1)....
THE GOLD SHEET (23-16)... MINNY...CAROLINA...OVER JETS
VEGAS EXPERTS THE EDGE 3* (18-9) ... PHILLY...DENVER...WASH
WINNING POINTS BEST BET (17-12-1)... NEW ENGLAND...GB


COLD

ERIK SCHEPONIK (THE MAXX) (5-7)...RAIDERS ( L )....
KEVIN O'NEILL (THE MAXX) (8-13)... GB....OVER DENVER
LOGICAL APPROACH TOTALS (24-34)... Oakland/San Diego UNDER 43 ...Cincinnati/Indianapolis UNDER 42 ½ ..Houston/Green Bay OVER 47 ...
Cleveland/Tennessee UNDER 37 ½.. ...Washington/Baltimore UNDER 36 ...N Y Jets/San Francisco UNDER 45
STATFOX PLATINUM SHEET (24-34-1) ... OAK...CINCI...DALLAS...JETS ....WASH
...

THE REST
BRENT CROW (SPORTS MEMO) (0-0)...
CONFIDENTIAL KICK OFF 10* (8-6).. NEW ORLEANS
CONFIDENTIAL KICK OFF 11* (0-0)... ARIZONA
DAVE FOBARE (THE MAXX) (5-6).. CINCI
DONNIE BLACK (SPORTS MEMO) (1-0)...SAN FRAN
ED CASH (SPORTS MEMO) (0-0)...
FAIRWAY JAY (SPORTS MEMO) (3-3)... PHILLY
THE GOLD SHEET EXTRA (6-8-1)....
JARED KLEIN (SPORTS MEMO) (3-1)...NEW ORLEANS
LOGICAL APPROACH FEATURED SEL (17-17-1)..GREEN BAY...JETS...PITT
MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK 4* (8-7)... CAROLINA
MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK 5* (9-7)... GREEN BAY
MATTY BAIUNGO (THE MAXX) (6-7)... PHILLY
NELLY'S SPORTSLINE 4* (6-4-1).
NORTHCOAST POWER PLAYS 4* (8-9-1).. NEW ENGLAND....MINNY
POINTWISE 1* (0-0)...
POINTWISE 2* (3-3)...
SPORTS INSIGHT MARKETWATCH (20-18-1)... JAX....HOUST...SF...CAROLINA
SPORTS REPORTER BEST BET (15-15-2).... CHICAGO
SPORTS REPORTER RECOMMENDED (9-11-1)...NEW ENGLAND...KC
SPORTS REPORTER SUPER BEST BET (1-1).... DALLAS
TEDDY COVERS (SPORTS MEMO) (2-3).... BALTY
THE RED SHEET 89* (1-0)...
THE RED SHEET 90* (0-0)...
TIM TRUSHEL (SPORTS MEMO) (3-4).. BUFFALO
WINNING POINTS PREFERRED (11-11)... GIANTS ...ARIZ

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

DOC

3 Unit Play. #52 Take Denver Broncos over Kansas City Chiefs (Sunday 4:05 pm CBS) Denver 35, Kansas City 21.
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

BURNS

I'm taking the points with SAN FRANCISCO.Expect them to have their hands full once again.

BURNS

I'm taking the points with SEATTLE. Look for an inspired effort from the Seahawks as they step up and thrive in the spoiler role





BEN BURNS
MAIN EVENT

I'm taking the points with WASHINGTON. *Main Event




BEN BURNS
UNDERDOG GAME OF YEAR

I'm taking the points with the DETROIT LIONS. *Underdog GOY


BEN BURNS
TOTAL OF THE MONTH

I'm playing on the Eagles and Giants to finish UNDER the total. *Total of the Month



BEN BURNS

I'm laying the points with NEW ORLEANS. *Personal Favorite
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[bbadjohnboy69]

Jeff benton sunday plays
saturday 75 dimer on fla.

Sunday play
30 dimer on ne / patriots
10 dimer the bears
10 dimer ny giants

good luck / paid for and confirmed

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Randall the Handle

HOME TEAM IN CAPS

INDIANAPOLIS –13½ +1.01 over Cincinnati PINNACLE

The question here is how the hell are the Bengals going to keep pace with the Colts. For one, Cinci has scored a league low 151 points and couldn’t move five yards against the Ravens last week. Hell, this team can’t move five yards on anyone. The Bengals can’t pass and they’re terrible at running the football, as their 31st overall ranking in the NFL can attest to. The Bengals greatest weapon is the two-yard run on 2cd and 10. Cinci will also come into this contest with a depleted secondary, no motivation, no chemistry, a coach on the hotseat and one win in 11 games. Meanwhile the Colts failed to score an offensive TD for the first time in five years last Sunday in Cleveland. That’s not going to happen again and it’ll just motivate Manning more, who was not on his game last week. Furthermore, it’s the Colts defense that has risen to the forefront recently, as the team has allowed an average of just 17 points against in its last five games, all wins. The Bengals pulled a no show last week against Baltimore (among many others this year) and one must wonder what’ll motivate them this week on the road against a team they absolutely know they’re going to lose against. Colts are likely going to the playoffs and can take a big step closer with a win here against this dumpster- fire team. Play: Indianapolis –13½ +1.01 (Risking 2 units).



SAN FRANCISCO +3½ over NY Jets PINNACLE

Wait until Sunday if you’re on board for this one, as this line is certainly going to move in our favor. There are plenty of 3½’s out there right now so Jet backer should jump on it right now but if you were leaning Jets, I’m urging you to be cautious. As an 8½-point favorite against Denver with a chance to solidify its playoff hopes and seeding, the Jets were whacked by the Broncos 31-17. In two other games out west this season let’s have a look at how the Jets faired. In week three they traveled to San Diego and lost 48-29. Three weeks later they traveled to Oakland and lost to the Raiders. That’s right and I’ll repeat, they lost to the woeful Raiders in the midst of that Lane Kippen fiasco. Now the Jets will travel west once again to play the rejuvenated 49ers under the tutelage of Mike Singletary. The 49ers are coming off a 10-3 win over Buffalo last week and they’re now 2-2 over its last four. However, they fell a yard short of defeating the Cardinals in Arizona in that bizarre Monday nighter a few weeks ago and they also lost to Dallas. The 49ers should be 3-1 over that stretch with only loss coming at Dallas. Also note that the public is eating this one up and that, too, is never a good sign. All the hype on the Jets took a hit last week and most expect a big bounce back from them this week. Most everyone except Las Vegas and when Vegas speaks I tend to listen. Play San Francisco +3½ (Risking 2.08 units to win 2).



CHICAGO –6½ over Jacksonville PINNACLE

The Jags are a perfect example of what happens to a team when things start going wrong away from the football field. They started the season with a slew of players that ran into trouble with the law and then coach Jack Del Rio lost compete control of the team. The seat under Del Rio has been boiling at a slow pace for the past few weeks and judging from the effort of the players last week, they couldn’t give a f**k. Now, after that dreadful showing on Monday Night in Houston and with its season virtually over the Jags will travel to play in –7 degrees weather at Chicago. Over its last four road games the Jags have one win and that came against the 0-55 Lions. They even lost to the Bengals, giving Cinci its only win of the year. The Bears ran into some hard luck last week in Minnesota. They were about to go up 14-3 late in the second when a turnover for six points turned a potential 14-3 lead into a 10-7 deficit and the Pandas never recovered. This will be the Bears first home game in a month and with a 6-6 record and its playoff hopes riding on this game, they need to make a statement and frankly, they couldn’t have hand-picked a more ripe opponent. Garrard has two TD passes and five picks over the past five games and playing in windy and cold Chicago is about a s tough as it gets for a team and QB that’s going bad. Play: Chicago –6½ (Risking 2.12 units to win 2).



Dallas +1.37 over PITTSBURGH PINNACLE

I like the fact that the Boys have had an extra three days to prepare for this huge showdown and I also like the fact that the Steelers are coming off a big win over the Patriots. This one is going to be close for sure, meaning the Cowboys have a great chance to win. Dallas is just a different team with Romo in there. The defense plays better knowing they can give up something and the offense just feels it with Romo taking the snaps. The blueprint for beating the Steelers is no mystery. Pressure Roethlisberger and stop the run and the Steelers become a very ordinary team. We’ve seen it before and interestingly enough two of the Steelers losses this year came against NFC-East opponents who did just that, Philly and the G-Men. The Cowboys defense is more then capable of executing that blueprint and for the third time this year the Steelers will find out that they just can’t beat the teams in the NFC East. With upcoming games against the Giants, Ravens and Eagles, the Cowboys have to get this one and it says here they do just that. Play: Dallas +1.37 (Risking 2 units).



Note: One boxing pick goes Saturday.

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OTHER GAMES (10-6)



SEATTLE +4½ over New England

Let’s see if I have this correct. The Patriots remain one of the most popular teams among the betting public and they’re coming off a blowout loss against the Steelers last week. New England is 7-5 and absolutely needs a win here to keep their hopes alive for a playoff spot. They’ll play a Seahawks team that is 2-10, that is completely banged up, that doesn’t do a damn thing efficiently, that has a coach that’s leaving at the end of the year and that gets blown out almost every week. I feel like taking my entire bankroll and my kids education funds and putting it all on the Patriots and I’m not alone. But alas my friends, the books do not make bad judgment calls and this doesn’t look like the trap of the week, it looks like the trap of the year or decade. Why, oh why did the books make the Patriots look so damn appealing this week? Before you pull the trigger on the Pats (I know you want to) you had better ask yourself why is this line so low. New England should be at least a 7½-point favorite here and maybe more, especially coming off that ugly loss. The whole world is on New England and I can guarantee you that’s how the oddsmakers envisioned it when they put up this enticing number. You’ve been warned. Play: Seattle +4½ (No bets).
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Doug Williams

Eagles +6 1/2
Colts -13 1/2
Patriots -4 1/2 (line has moved)
St Louis +14
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